MEASURE 50'S SMOKE -- AND MIRRORS
But before you vote the Democratic Legislature's tobacco-tax hike
into the Oregon Constitution, consider this: It won't be too long
before nonsmoking Oregon taxpayers -- you, Buster -- will have to
pony up for Measure 50's Healthy Kids Program.
If you've ever questioned the wisdom of funding a new program by
taxing a product you hope will disappear, you're halfway to
discerning 50's big problem. . . .
In a study commissioned by tobacco industry foes of Measure 50,
economist William Conerly used the Legislative Revenue Office's
draft figures on the impact of Measure 50's tax hike. . . .
Conerly factors in this shifting and projects that the Healthy
Kids Program will be more than $100 million in the red in
2009-11 and $484 million in the red in 2015-17.
What happens when the tobacco tax revenues cannot sustain a
Healthy Kids program? You hit up nonsmoking taxpayers. After
all, it's for the children.
Of course, this kind of economic analysis is not an exact
science, and Conerly did do this for the tobacco interests. So
can we trust his numbers? First, he has a solid reputation.
